Application of NNARX to Agricultural Economic Variables Forecasting

Application of Grey Theory to the Field of Economic Forecasting

Grey theory was proposed by Prof. Deng [1] for more than 30 years. It has been successfully applied in many academic fields, such as electrical engineering, education, mechanical engineering, agriculture, high-tech sectors and so on [2-8]. Grey theory is famous for easy calculation and satisfactory result. Comparing to other methods, grey theory need only as few as four data could be modeled to...

Evolutionary Algorithms – Development and Application to Hydrological Variables Forecasting

A comparison of methods to avoid overfitting in neural networks training in the case of catchment runoff modeling. evolutionary computation techniques for noise injected neural network training to estimate longitudinal dispersion coefficients in rivers. Expert Systems with Applications 39, 1354-1361.

The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. It is found that it depends on the data generatio...

Rejoinder to Comments on Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

Economic Forecasting *

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster’s objectives. Decision theory provides a framework for both the construction and evaluation of forecasts. This framework allows an understanding of the ch...